4%
Very unlikely

The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/quad-indo-pacific-what-know" target="_blank">Quad</a> countries are the US, India, Japan, and Australia. Tensions <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-japan-officials-meet-amid-taiwan-tensions-/6706508..

★★★★☆
Good Judgment
60%
Likely

From CNN,

If China tries to take Taiwan, are the United States and its allies able to stop it? [The] alarming answer is: Quite possibly not. Analysts say China has more troops, more missiles and more ships than Taiwan or its possible supporters,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 469
80%
Likely

This question asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.

Conditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 350
20%
Unlikely

Although the Republic of China (also known as Taiwan) is currently recognized by 13 UN member states, and possesses de facto sovereignty over its territory, it has never formally declared independence from the People's Republic of China. Opinion...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 237
5%
Very unlikely

Currently, the political status of The Republic of China (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 553
49%
About Even

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
  • If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?

With tensions in the Taiwan Strait at a boiling point,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 291
65%
Likely

From CNN,

President Joe Biden said Monday that the United States would intervene militarily if China attempts to take Taiwan by force, a warning that appeared to deviate from the deliberate ambiguity traditionally held by Washington.

The White...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 459

The Republic of China has full diplomatic relations with 13 UN member states as of this writing. Those countries are: Belize, Eswatini, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 117
20%
Unlikely

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

  • If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?

  • If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 112
3%
Very unlikely

In recent decades the People's Republic of China has been engaged in a concerted effort to modernize its military, as detailed in this 212-page report issued by the Pentagon to the US Congress. The PRC now has the largest navy by number of ships, the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 31
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

As part of generally deteriorating relations, China and Taiwan have been playing something of a tit-for-tat trade restrictions game over recent months. This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation in this game.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 18
40%
About Even

The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1839
5%
Very unlikely

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC; also called Taiwan Semiconductor) is the world's most valuable semiconductor company. NVIDIA, the main manufacturer of GPUs powering most top AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-4, spends billions...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 52
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

China has repeatedly asserted a claim to Taiwan since the beginning of independent Taiwanese governance in 1949. The tense relations between the two countries has led to fears of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 774
48%
About Even

Taiwan (Republic of China) and China (People's Republic of China) are de facto separate countries, but China maintains that Taiwan is a Chinese province and that eventual unification is inevitable. The United States ceased formal diplomatic relations...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 100
5%
Very unlikely

Since dropping atomic bombs on Japan in World War II, the U.S. has issued a number of nuclear threats, by some accounts, including against China, Cuba, and Vietnam.


Related questions:

  • Will China make an official statement threatening nuclear...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 20
20%
Unlikely

China has maintained a nuclear “no first use” policy—i.e., a policy “not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances” and “not to threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states”—since its first...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 37
75%
Likely

During Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference in China on May 23, 2022, Agence France-Presse asked,

President Biden has said that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if Beijing invaded or forcibly tried...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 326
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, officially claims to be the sole legitimate government of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. Currently, the Republic of China (aka...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 15
70%
Likely

2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China. Graham Allison and The Brookings Institute have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering Taiwan.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 360
5%
Very unlikely

Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Islands (News.com.au, Newsweek, Taipei Times). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 147
Forecasters: 62

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