28%
Unlikely

Tensions <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59900139" target="_blank">continue</a> to <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/08/17/how-pelosi-s-taiwan-visit-has-set-new-status-quo-for-u.s-china-tensions-pub-87696"...

★★★★☆
Good Judgment
10%
Unlikely

There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson expressed concern about the potential for conflict in the next six years....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 481
14%
Unlikely

The PRC continues to hold military drills near Taiwan as the island nation extends the term of mandatory military service (Economist, Axios, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia,...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 296
Forecasters: 228
41%
About Even

The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1091
64%
Likely

As one of the most successful market democracies in Asia, Taiwan faces geopolitical challenges from PRC due to its longstanding territorial claim over the island and threat of military invasion/annexation. Relatedly, a consistent divide in Taiwanese...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 71
20%
Unlikely

Although the Republic of China (also known as Taiwan) is currently recognized by 13 UN member states, and possesses de facto sovereignty over its territory, it has never formally declared independence from the People's Republic of China. Opinion...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 71
16%
Unlikely

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (Newsweek, Politico). For...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 333
Forecasters: 97
5%
Very unlikely

Currently, the political status of The Republic of China (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government.

***Will China recognize the...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 426
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China -- which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory -- were at a 40-year high. Similarly, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned that...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 223
27%
Unlikely

The People's Republic of China claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the Republic of China (Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news recently claimed that the threat of China...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 314
68%
Likely

2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China. Graham Allison and The Brookings Institute have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering Taiwan..

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 258

According to the US Census, the value of US-Taiwan trade in goods in 2021 was $114 billion, accounting for 2.5% of US trade and making Taiwan the United States' 8th-largest trading partner.

In June 2022, the two countries announced the U.S.-Taiwan...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 23
3%
Very unlikely

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?
  • Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?...
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 98
74%
Likely

This question asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.

Conditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 259
52%
About Even

Taiwan (Republic of China) and China (People's Republic of China) are de facto separate countries, but China maintains that Taiwan is a Chinese province and that eventual unification is inevitable. The United States ceased formal diplomatic relations...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 37
62%
Likely

During Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference in China on May 23, 2022, Agence France-Presse asked,

President Biden has said that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if Beijing invaded or forcibly tried...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 182

From CNBC,

Russia is facing “economic oblivion” in the long term because of international sanctions and the flight of businesses, several economists have said.

The International Monetary Fund last week upgraded Russia’s gross domestic product...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 10
62%
Likely

From CNN,

If China tries to take Taiwan, are the United States and its allies able to stop it? [The] alarming answer is: Quite possibly not. Analysts say China has more troops, more missiles and more ships than Taiwan or its possible supporters,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 103
66%
Likely

From CNN,

President Joe Biden said Monday that the United States would intervene militarily if China attempts to take Taiwan by force, a warning that appeared to deviate from the deliberate ambiguity traditionally held by Washington.

The White...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 272
50%
About Even

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
  • If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?

With tensions in the Taiwan Strait at a boiling point,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 107

The Republic of China has full diplomatic relations with 13 UN member states as of this writing. Those countries are: Belize, Eswatini, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 54

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