5%
Very unlikely

There is growing discussion in the United States about the rising risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson expressed concern about the potential for conflict in the next six years....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 628
10%
Unlikely

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC; also called Taiwan Semiconductor) is the world's most valuable semiconductor company. NVIDIA, the main manufacturer of GPUs powering most top AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-4, spends billions...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 31
40%
About Even

The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 1257
57%
About Even

As one of the most successful market democracies in Asia, Taiwan faces geopolitical challenges from PRC due to its longstanding territorial claim over the island and threat of military invasion/annexation. Relatedly, a consistent divide in Taiwanese...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 144
55%
About Even

The 16th President and Vice President election of the Republic of China is scheduled to be held in Taiwan in early 2024. Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was reelected in 2020, is ineligible to seek a...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 98
15%
Unlikely

Although the Republic of China (also known as Taiwan) is currently recognized by 13 UN member states, and possesses de facto sovereignty over its territory, it has never formally declared independence from the People's Republic of China. Opinion...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 197
18%
Unlikely

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (CNBC, Politico). For the...

★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 260
Forecasters: 81
20%
Unlikely

In August 2022, US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. Due to the fraught relations between the US and China regarding Taiwan, the visit attracted considerable media attention and was followed by large-scale Chinese military exercises....

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 168
5%
Very unlikely

Currently, the political status of The Republic of China (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 516
14%
Unlikely

The People's Republic of China claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the Republic of China (Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news recently claimed that the threat of China...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 440
68%
Likely

2049 marks the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China. Graham Allison and The Brookings Institute have suggested that the PRC wants to achieve some form of national greatness by 2049, which would possibly include conquering Taiwan.

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 317
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 43
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 444
76%
Likely

This question asks if there will be conflict between China and Taiwan killing >100 people before 2050.

Conditional on that question resolving positively, will any of the US, Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, France, UK,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 322
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 83
68%
Likely

During Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference in China on May 23, 2022, Agence France-Presse asked,

President Biden has said that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily if Beijing invaded or forcibly tried...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 267

From CNBC,

Russia is facing “economic oblivion” in the long term because of international sanctions and the flight of businesses, several economists have said.

The International Monetary Fund last week upgraded Russia’s gross domestic product...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 26
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 354
60%
Likely

From CNN,

President Joe Biden said Monday that the United States would intervene militarily if China attempts to take Taiwan by force, a warning that appeared to deviate from the deliberate ambiguity traditionally held by Washington.

The White...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 379
20%
Unlikely

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?

  • If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?

  • If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 69
50%
About Even

Related questions on Metaculus:

  • Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
  • If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?

With tensions in the Taiwan Strait at a boiling point,...

★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 254

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