Will a Quad country or the People's Republic of China publicly accuse the other of using a weapon against its national military, militia, and/or law enforcement forces before 1 January 2025?

Good Judgment
★★★★☆
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/quad-indo-pacific-what-know" target="_blank">Quad</a> countries are the US, India, Japan, and Australia. Tensions <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-japan-officials-meet-amid-taiwan-tensions-/6706508.html" target="_blank">continue</a> in the South China Sea and <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-threatens-bangladesh-says-ties-will-be-hit-if-it-joins-quad/articleshow/82544639.cms" target="_blank">elsewhere</a>, with increasing fears of some form of military <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/asia/the-quad-tokyo-summit-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">confrontation</a>. For the purposes of this question, drones may be considered part of "forces" if so claimed by the accusing party's forces. Accusations of "warning shots" being fired would count. An accusation of a vessel or aircraft deliberately ramming another would count, but accidental collisions would not. Cyberattacks and the use of directed-energy weapons (e.g., microwaves, sonic weapons) would not count. An accusation by one Quad country against another Quad country would not count, and both the accused use and the accusation must occur during the question's open period to count.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★★☆
PlatformGood Judgment

Capture

Resizable preview:
2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/quad-indo-pacific-what-know" target="_blank">Quad</a> countries are the US, India, Japan, and Australia. Tensions <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-japan-officials-meet-amid-taiwan-tensions-/6706508..

Last updated: 2024-07-15
★★★★☆
Good Judgment

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/goodjudgment-b96c5de7bf" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />