What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for December 2023?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
57%
3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%
3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%
4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.5%
Lower than 3.5%
4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.0%
5.0% or higher, but lower than 5.5%

Question description

While the US unemployment rate in April 2023 tied for the lowest in 70 years, there are signals that the labor market is cooling amid general recession fears (US News & World Report, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics when first released, expected in January 2024 (BLS). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts243
Forecasters54

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57%
3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%
37%
4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.5%
4%
Lower than 3.5%
2%
4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.0%
< 1%
5.0% or higher, but lower than 5.5%
Last updated: 2023-11-28
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 243
Forecasters: 54

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