When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds next cease to be inverted?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
91%
Not before 1 August 2024
Not before 1 August 2024
Between 2 May 2024 and 31 July 2024
Before 2 November 2023
Between 1 February 2024 and 1 May 2024
Between 2 November 2023 and 31 January 2024

Question description

When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia, CNBC). The curve for 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds inverted in July 2022 (NBC News). The outcome will be determined using daily US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts493
Forecasters41

Capture

Resizable preview:
91%
Not before 1 August 2024
9%
Between 2 May 2024 and 31 July 2024
< 1%
Before 2 November 2023
< 1%
Between 2 November 2023 and 31 January 2024
< 1%
Between 1 February 2024 and 1 May 2024
Last updated: 2024-06-17
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 493
Forecasters: 41

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