When will North Korea next detonate a nuclear device?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
81%
Not before 11 August 2024
Not before 11 August 2024
Between 11 April 2024 and 10 August 2024
Between 11 December 2023 and 10 April 2024
Before 11 December 2023

Question description

Amid an flurry of ballistic missile tests in 2023, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (NBC News, Al Jazeera). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts351
Forecasters61

Capture

Resizable preview:
81%
Not before 11 August 2024
16%
Between 11 April 2024 and 10 August 2024
3%
Between 11 December 2023 and 10 April 2024
< 1%
Before 11 December 2023
Last updated: 2024-05-05
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 351
Forecasters: 61

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