Will the President of Germany dissolve the Bundestag before 1 January 2025?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
22%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Germany's ruling coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) is facing very low popularity as the far-right AfD rises in the polls (Deutsche Welle, AP, Politico - Germany Poll of Polls). Germany last held early elections in 2005 after President Köhler dissolved parliament at the request of then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (Deutsche Welle, Bundeswahlleiterin [in German]). The date the elections would take place is immaterial. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts138
Forecasters47

Capture

Resizable preview:
22%
Unlikely

Germany's ruling coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) is facing very low popularity as the far-right AfD rises in the polls (Deutsche Welle, AP, Politico - Germany Poll of Polls). Germany...

Last updated: 2024-02-23
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 138
Forecasters: 47

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