When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?

Russia's war in Ukraine continues, though Russia floated the idea of talks on the "post-conflict settlement" of the war in October 2023 (Economist, Newsweek, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Ukraine. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.