In NetChoice, LLC v. Paxton, will the Supreme Court rule that the viewpoint-based censorship restrictions (Section 7) in Texas' social media censorship law (HB 20) complies with the First Amendment?

The Supreme Court agreed to hear challenges to House Bill 20 (HB 20), a Texas law that, among other things, prohibits qualifying social media companies from censoring users based on the viewpoint of their expression (Economist, Texas.gov, Oyez, LegiScan - HB 20, see Section 7). The district court issued a preliminary injunction barring enforcement of the law, which the Fifth Circuit reversed and NetChoice appealed to the Supreme Court (SCOTUSblog, Politico, The Verge). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." If the Court rules that Section 7 facially complies with the First Amendment and/or "as applied" to all parties of the case, the question will close "Yes," regardless of the potential of other future challenges (Bona Law). The outcome of Moody v. NetChoice, LLC, a companion case out of Florida, is immaterial. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.