When will the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index next be 2.000% or lower?

The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US and the measure preferred by the Federal Reserve (Investopedia, Federal Reserve - FAQs). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index for August 2023 was 3.41090%. A change for a pertinent month revised from above 2.000% to at or below 2.000% would not count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.