When will the year-over-year percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index next be 2.000% or lower?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
35%
Between August 2024 and October 2024
Between August 2024 and October 2024
Not before November 2024
Between May 2024 and July 2024
Between February 2024 and April 2024
Before February 2024

Question description

The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US and the measure preferred by the Federal Reserve (Investopedia, Federal Reserve - FAQs). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index for August 2023 was 3.41090%. A change for a pertinent month revised from above 2.000% to at or below 2.000% would not count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts146
Forecasters30

Capture

Resizable preview:
35%
Between August 2024 and October 2024
32%
Not before November 2024
29%
Between May 2024 and July 2024
4%
Between February 2024 and April 2024
< 1%
Before February 2024
Last updated: 2024-04-18
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 146
Forecasters: 30

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