What percentage of the vote will the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor, or AUR) party list win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?

The right-wing AUR has gained popularity in Romania to the consternation of pro-EU observers (Euronews, Antena 3 CNN [in Romanian], Romania Insider, AUD). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. If AUR merges with another party, that new party will count. The question will be suspended on 8 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 9 June 2024 (EU Elections). There are a total of 33 Romanian seats up in the 2024 EP elections (European Parliament). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.