Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state or as otherwise not a part of the Republic of Moldova before 15 December 2024?

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, concerns remain that Russia may foment unrest in Moldova by recognizing Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova on Ukraine's western border, which already hosts Russian peacekeepers (Britannica - Transnistria, Deutsche Welle, CNBC, Al Jazeera, European Council on Foreign Relations). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.