When will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and/or armored vehicles?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
70%
Not before 10 September 2024
Not before 10 September 2024
Between 12 July 2024 and 9 September 2024
Between 13 May 2024 and 11 July 2024
Before 13 May 2024

Question description

As fighting in Gaza continues, concerns remain that there may be a major escalation of fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon (Yahoo, Al Arabiya, ABC News). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles, cross the "Blue Line" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (UN Interim Force in Lebanon, Britannica - Armoured Vehicle). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts184
Forecasters65

Capture

Resizable preview:
70%
Not before 10 September 2024
23%
Between 12 July 2024 and 9 September 2024
7%
Between 13 May 2024 and 11 July 2024
< 1%
Before 13 May 2024
Last updated: 2024-06-17
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 184
Forecasters: 65

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