When will Egypt officially allow Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip who are not foreign nationals of a UN member state to enter Egypt?

As Israel's offensive in Gaza focuses in the south of Gaza near the Egyptian border, concerns grow and contingencies are being considered for a potential refugee crisis (Yahoo, NPR, US News & World Report). Opening its border for individualized circumstances (e.g., medical evacuations, employees of specific organizations, family members of particular persons) alone would not count. Allowing refugees to enter Egypt in order to continue on to a different location would count. An announcement alone without evidence that Palestinians have actually crossed into Egypt would not count, and allowing refugees who entered Egypt from Gaza without authorization to stay or go on to another location would not count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.