Will Russia be the largest supplier of arms to India from 2020 to 2024, according to SIPRI?

India has shifted from its heavy dependence on Russia for arms and weapons over the past several years, all while trying to balance the strength of its relationship with Moscow as Chinese military spending climbs (US News & World Report, BBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), expected in March 2025 (SIPRI - Publications, parameters set in link). From 2019 to 2023, Russia's share of India's total arms imports was 36% (France was second at 33%), down from 68% from 2012 to 2016 (SIPRI - Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2023, SIPRI - Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2016). Due to rounding practices, the country listed as "1st" will determine the outcome, irrespective of whether the percentages shown for "1st" and "2nd" are the same. An xlsx file with links and data may be downloaded here: SIPRI Reports - File Download. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.