Fallout from Azerbaijan&#39;s September 2023 conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan with an ethnic Armenian majority, continues to put heavy pressure on Armenia&#39;s government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/how-the-war-in-ukraine-is-changing-the-caucasus), [AP](https://apnews.com/general-news-188f6bbd334aff9a4573c765ad498f58), [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/armenia-pm-nikol-pashinyan-hand-azerbaijan-some-territory-avoid-new-war/)). Pashinyan staying on in a caretaker prime minister role subsequent with his resignation as prime minister would still count as Pashinyan ceasing to be prime minister ([Constitution of Armenia](https://www.president.am/en/constitution-2015/), see Article 149, [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210425-armenian-prime-minister-pashinyan-announces-his-resignation-to-enable-snap-polls)).
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Indicator	Value
Stars	★★★☆☆
Platform	Good Judgment Open
Number of forecasts	327
Forecasters	114

Will Nikol Pashinyan cease to be the prime minister of Armenia before 1 October 2024?

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