What percentage of votes cast for US president will be for someone other than either the Democratic or Republican nominee?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
21%
At least 6.00%, but less than 8.00%
At least 6.00%, but less than 8.00%
At least 3.00%, but less than 4.50%
At least 1.50%, but less than 3.00%
At least 4.50%, but less than 6.00%
At least 8.00%, but less than 10.00%

Question description

The question will be suspended on 4 November 2024 and the outcome determined using election results as reported by the Associated Press. If the outcome appears dependent on the disposition of legal disputes as to the validity of certain votes in a jurisdiction or jurisdictions, we will wait for the judicial outcomes of those disputes before resolving the question. An xlsx file with historical data from the US Federal Election Commission for previous US elections may be downloaded here, which may or may not be identical to data as reported by the Associated Press (FEC US Presidential Election Results 1984-2020). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts106
Forecasters61

Capture

Resizable preview:
21%
At least 6.00%, but less than 8.00%
19%
At least 3.00%, but less than 4.50%
17%
At least 1.50%, but less than 3.00%
16%
At least 4.50%, but less than 6.00%
13%
At least 8.00%, but less than 10.00%
Last updated: 2024-05-29
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 106
Forecasters: 61

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/goodjudgmentopen-3381" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />