Between 24 July 2024 and 11 August 2024, will there be a terrorist attack in continental France or French Polynesia resulting in at least three fatalities?

As the 2024 Summer Olympics approach in France, security concerns are running high (NBC News, El País, ASIS International, Olympics - Paris 2024 Schedule). The surfing competition will take place in Tahiti, which is in French Polynesia (Olympics - Surfing). For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by EU law (European Council, see "EU definition of terrorism"). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count, and attribution or claims of responsibility are immaterial. "Continental France" includes the territory of the French Republic on the continent of Europe plus the island of Corsica. The hijacking or bombing of an aircraft will count if the aircraft last took flight from continental France/French Polynesia or fatalities occur within the territory or airspace of continental France/French Polynesia. An attack in the territorial waters of continental France/French Polynesia will count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.