Tensions between the PRC and the Philippines have remained high as confrontations over the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea escalate in violence (AP, Deutsche Welle, CNBC). Over the years, the PRC has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (AP, Center for Strategic & International Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Modern War Institute). For the purposes of this question, a lethal confrontation is one that results in two or more fatalities among the Forces of both sides (total, not each). In the event of ambiguity as to the status of a party to a lethal confrontation as Forces, an accusation by a UN member state other than the PRC and the Philippines that a pertinent party to the lethal confrontation was Forces of the relevant country would suffice. If those involved from one side are a mixture of relevant forces and putatively civilian persons, the whole group would be considered to be part of the Forces (e.g., CNN). <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/12/asia/china-maritime-militia-philippines-tensions-intl-hnk-ml/index.html)."></a> Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.