Will Maia Sandu win reelection in the 2024 Moldovan presidential election?

In May 2024, the Moldovan parliament voted to hold both its next presidential election and a constitutional referendum on the country joining the EU on 20 October 2024 (Yahoo [Reuters], Balkan Insight, Moldovan Constitutional Court [in Romanian]). If no candidate wins an absolute majority in the presidential election, a runoff is to be held two weeks later (Constitution of Moldova, see Article 78, Presidency of the Republic of Moldova). Under Moldovan electoral law, an election or a referendum must have voter turnout of at least one-third for the result to be valid (one-fifth for a second round of the presidential election) (New Eastern Europe, Moldovan Central Electoral Commission, see Articles 151 and 211). If turnout is under one-third for the presidential election and/or the referendum (one-fifth for a second round of the presidential election), the election and/or referendum under the turnout minimum will not count, and any calling of a new election or referendum due to turnout failures is immaterial. If Maia Sandu ceases to be a candidate for president, her name will not be replaced in this question. If the election and referendum are not held in 2024, the question will close "No, and the constitutional referendum on joining the EU will not be approved." Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.