US exports of soybeans to China were a casualty during the first Trump administration, and tensions between the two countries and demand factors in China may again hit exports of the crop (UC Davis - Dept of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Voice of America, University of Illinois, Successful Farming). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau's USA Trade Online (USA Trade Online, free registration required). After logging in, click "Exports" next to "HS Port-level Data." From here, you will add parameters under "Report contents" on the left side of the page. 1) Click "Measures," then find and select "Vessel Total Exports SWT (kg)." 2) Leave "Port" unrevised, as it defaults to "Total All Ports." 3) Click "Commodity," then click the "+" next to "12 Oil Seeds Etc.; Misc Grain, Seed, Fruit, Plant, Etc" and select "1201 Soybeans, Whether Or Not Broken." 4) Click "Country," then click the "+" next to "World Total," then find and select "China." 5) Click "Time," and select the periods for which you want data. Months must be individually selected for a year. After all of those entries, click "Report" in "USA Trade Home --> Data Source Selection --> Report Contents --> Report" near the top of the screen. Export options are available by clicking the icon of the green arrow pointing down. The US crop years for soybeans run from 1 September through 31 August (Investopedia - Crop Year). Tabulated historical data from January 2003 through May 2024 may be downloaded here: US Soybean Exports to China 2003-2024 YTD as of 24 July 2024. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.