Incumbent President Maduro was declared the winner of Venezuela's 2024 presidential election by the Venezuelan National Electoral Council on 29 July 2024 amid widespread claims of fraud (CBC, AP, NBC News). The Venezuelan constitution states, in part, that "the candidate elected shall take office as President of the Republic on January 10 of the first year of his constitutional term, by taking an oath before the National Assembly" (Constitution of Venezuela). If Maduro either flees the country or dies before being inaugurated (i.e., sworn in), the question will close "No." Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.