In 2023, the state of Tennessee adopted Senate Bill 1, which, prohibits medical treatments intended to allow “a minor to identify with, or live as, a purported identity inconsistent with the minor’s sex” or to treat “purported discomfort or distress from a discordance between the minor’s sex and asserted identity” (Tennessee General Assembly - Senate Bill 1). Various parties sued to block enforcement, with the district court issuing a preliminary injunction as to part of the law involving hormone therapies and puberty blockers (CNN). The United States intervened (i.e., joined) with the parties seeking to block the bill's enforcement (Cornell). Tennessee appealed, the Sixth Circuit reversed the district court, and the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case (CNN, 6th Circuit Decision, CBS News). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2024 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." A ruling that any part of Senate Bill 1 violates the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment will count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.