Violence in Pakistan's Balochistan province has flared among some notable incidents in 2024, which poses broader implications for Pakistan as a whole (AP, ABC News (Australia), Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Explorer (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) select "Fatality Counts," (2) select "All Event Types," (3) select "Custom Date Range" and set the date range as appropriate, (4) select nothing, (5) select only "Pakistan," (6) select "Yes," which will present a drop-down menu from which you will select only "Balochistan," (7) select "Admin1," (8) select "No," (9) select "No," (10) select "Yes" and choose "Month," and click "Run Calculations." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 742 total fatalities in Balochistan due to conflicts and protests in the first nine months (1 January through 30 September) of 2024. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 17 November 2025, unless ACLED reports fatalities in excess of 3,000 before 17 November 2025. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Good Judgment Open |
Number of forecasts | 41 |
Forecasters | 19 |
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