MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Between 1 November 2024 and 31 October 2025, how many total fatalities will occur in the Pakistani province of Balochistan due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
23%
At least 750, but fewer than 1,000
At least 750, but fewer than 1,000
At least 500, but fewer than 750
Fewer than 500
At least 1,000, but fewer than 1,250
At least 2,000, but fewer than 3,000

Question description #

Violence in Pakistan's Balochistan province has flared among some notable incidents in 2024, which poses broader implications for Pakistan as a whole (AP, ABC News (Australia), Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Explorer (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) select "Fatality Counts," (2) select "All Event Types," (3) select "Custom Date Range" and set the date range as appropriate, (4) select nothing, (5) select only "Pakistan," (6) select "Yes," which will present a drop-down menu from which you will select only "Balochistan," (7) select "Admin1," (8) select "No," (9) select "No," (10) select "Yes" and choose "Month," and click "Run Calculations." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 742 total fatalities in Balochistan due to conflicts and protests in the first nine months (1 January through 30 September) of 2024. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 17 November 2025, unless ACLED reports fatalities in excess of 3,000 before 17 November 2025. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts41
Forecasters19

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Between 1 November 2024 and 31 October 2025, how many total fatalities will occur in the Pakistani province of Balochistan due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
23%
At least 750, but fewer than 1,000
23%
At least 500, but fewer than 750
23%
Fewer than 500
12%
At least 1,000, but fewer than 1,250
11%
At least 2,000, but fewer than 3,000
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 41
Forecasters: 19

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/goodjudgmentopen-3793" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview