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Will the S&P 500 Index close lower by 4.0% or more in a single trading day before 31 May 2025?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
34%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

US equity markets performed well through the first three quarters of 2024, though various geopolitical and financial risks are concerns (MSN [Forbes], Yahoo [Bloomberg]). The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 29 May 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percent Change"). The last time the index fell 4.0% or more in a single trading day was 13 September 2022. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts173
Forecasters53

Capture #

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Will the S&P 500 Index close lower by 4.0% or more in a single trading day before 31 May 2025?
34%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-01-24

US equity markets performed well through the first three quarters of 2024, though various geopolitical and financial risks are concerns (MSN [Forbes], Yahoo [Bloomberg]). The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in...

Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 173
Forecasters: 53

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