The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (CNN, Naval News, Foreign Policy Research Institute). For the purposes of this question, "territorial waters" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan. Military drones will count, but balloons will not count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.