With Senator Marco Rubio expected to be appointed US Secretary of State after Donald Trump's election victory, the responsibility to replace Rubio will fall on the governor of Florida (The Hill, NY Post, CBS News). The new Senate is scheduled to begin on 3 January 2025, and Secretaries of State are customarily nominated and confirmed within days of a new president's inauguration on 20 January (US Constitution - Amendment XX, Center for Presidential Transition). The question will close early upon Trump's transition team or administration publicly announcing that Trump is no longer seeking Rubio's appointment as Secretary of State or Rubio publicly announcing that he is no longer seeking the job. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.