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Before 1 June 2025, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to a putative act or acts of sabotage?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
26%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Reports of sabotage operations in Europe by Russia have further inflamed tensions on the continent (NBC News, Yahoo [DPA International], US News & World Report). Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, states that any member can call for consultations when they believe they are under threat, while Article 5 covers collective defense in the event of an armed attack against a member (NATO - Article 4, NATO - Article 5). Article 4 was last invoked in February 2022 by several NATO member states in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (The Conversation). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts130
Forecasters61

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Before 1 June 2025, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to a putative act or acts of sabotage?
26%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-01-24

Reports of sabotage operations in Europe by Russia have further inflamed tensions on the continent (NBC News, Yahoo [DPA International], US News & World Report). Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, states that any member...

Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 130
Forecasters: 61

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