Despite various calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine, the fighting continues (Economist, MSN [Washington Post], AP, Newsweek). An announced ceasefire must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count, and must include the whole of Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the announced ceasefire to count. The date a ceasefire will take effect is immaterial. The intended duration of a ceasefire will be determined using credible, open-source reporting, and a qualifying intended duration must be agreed to at its inception (e.g., a 15-day ceasefire that is extended for another 15 days would not count). Whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.