We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
Credit card debt reached a record $1.17 trillion in the third quarter of 2024, and while new delinquency rates have improved slightly, the percentage of that debt moving into "serious delinquency" (i.e., 90 or more days delinquent) continues to rise (New York Fed, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NY Fed) in its Q3 2025 Household Debt and Credit Report, expected in November 2025 (New York Fed, click "DOWNLOADS" and select "DATA" to download the file). In its Q3 2024 report (see the "CC" column in the "Page 12 Data" sheet), the NY Fed reported the "Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent" for credit cards at 11.132%. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
| Platform | Good Judgment Open |
| Number of forecasts | 37 |
| Forecasters | 19 |