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Will the closing value of the S&P 500 Index fall below 4,860.09 before 1 July 2025?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
10%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 29 June 2025 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 5 December 2024, the closing value was 6,075.11, and 4,860.09 represents a 20% fall from the closing value on 5 December 2024. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts103
Forecasters46

Capture #

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Will the closing value of the S&P 500 Index fall below 4,860.09 before 1 July 2025?
10%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-01-24

The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 29 June 2025 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic...

Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 103
Forecasters: 46

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