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Before 8 May 2025, will the Federal Reserve announce a change in the total cap of assets that run off its balance sheet each month?

Good Judgment Open
★★★☆☆
53%
No
No
Yes, it will decrease the total cap
Yes, it will increase the total cap

Question description #

As the Federal Reserve contemplates future interest rate cuts in 2025, the central bank has continued to reduce the level of assets on its balance sheet as part of its program of monetary "quantitative tightening," which it slowed beginning in June 2024 (US News & World Report, Investopedia, Congressional Research Service). The question will be suspended on 6 May 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using information in the statements and implementation notes release by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (Federal Reserve - FOMC Meeting Calendar). As of the launch of this question, the total cap of assets was $60 billion each month, $25 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) (Federal Reserve - Implementation Note 18 December 2024). A change in the amounts for Treasury securities and MBS that results in no net change from the total $60 billion will not count, and the date the change will take effect is immaterial. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformGood Judgment Open
Number of forecasts16
Forecasters11

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Before 8 May 2025, will the Federal Reserve announce a change in the total cap of assets that run off its balance sheet each month?
53%
No
43%
Yes, it will decrease the total cap
4%
Yes, it will increase the total cap
Last updated: 2025-01-24
Last updated: 2025-01-24
★★★☆☆
GJOpen
Forecasts: 16
Forecasters: 11

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