Mexican officials have voiced concerns that Trump may order military strikes against drug cartels in the country in his second term (Yahoo [Reuters], MSN [Wall Street Journal], El País). "Stray" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count and will close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters will not count. Accidents, such as stray ordinance falling onto Mexican territory, will not count. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.