The commercial aviation industry has been trending toward greater safety in recent years, despite a number of high-profile incidents in 2024 (CNN, MSN [Bloomberg]). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using IATA's Annual Safety Report for 2025 as first released, expected to be published in early 2026 (IATA Annual Safety Report). In 2023, there was one fatal accident with 72 fatalities (IATA Annual Safety Report 2023, see Executive Summary, IATA - Press Release 28 February 2024). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.