The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for "Total arrivals" on its Mediterranean Situation page (UNHCR - Mediterranean Situation). In 2023, a total of 270,180 arrived in Europe (sea arrivals to Italy and Malta, and both sea and land arrivals to Cyprus, Greece, and Spain (including the Canary Islands)). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.