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Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
90%
Very likely
Yes

Question description #

Starship has flown 5 times so far, all since Artemis I; however, none have flown to orbit. Will it fly, successfully and orbitally, more times before Artemis II, than SLS flies in its entire program?

Orbital will be defined as perigee above sea level. Success criteria will be taken from the Wikipedia launch list page.

[tweet]Close date will be extended as needed until the SLS program ends, or SLS has flown more times than Starship flew between Artemis I and II.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters9
VolumeM7.3k

Capture #

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Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?
90%
Very likely
Last updated: 2025-06-12

Starship has flown 5 times so far, all since Artemis I; however, none have flown to orbit. Will it fly, successfully and orbitally, more times before Artemis II, than SLS flies in its entire program?

Orbital will be defined as perigee above sea...

Last updated: 2025-06-12
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 9
Volume: M7.3k

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