MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
37%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge. Even if the requirements for the grand prize change in 2025, this benchmark of >=85% performance will remain unchanged. Learn more about the competition here: https://arcprize.org/competition.

2025 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1

2024 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters33
VolumeM5.8k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
37%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-13

https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal...

Last updated: 2025-04-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 33
Volume: M5.8k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-0slqwtt5t1" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview