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Will any model score 70+% on ARC AGI 2 within 3 months of its release?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Non-compute bounded models allowed.

As of making this, ARC-AGI-2 has not been released yet, but https://arcprize.org/blog/arc-prize-2025 says “late Q1 2025” so we’ll set an end date for July, which is after Q2 ends.

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Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters38
VolumeM16k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will any model score 70+% on ARC AGI 2 within 3 months of its release?
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-13

Non-compute bounded models allowed.

As of making this, ARC-AGI-2 has not been released yet, but https://arcprize.org/blog/arc-prize-2025 says “late Q1 2025” so we’ll set an end date for July, which is after Q2 ends.

[link preview]

Last updated: 2025-05-13
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 38
Volume: M16k

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