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IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
33%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

This is a market that is attempting to evaluate the probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030 conditional on artificial superintelligence existing.

If artificial superintelligence does not exist by 2030, this market will resolve to N/A.

This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027 as do the linked markets.

Inspired by https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1686140175993487364

Related markets: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-by-2030-r?r=RWxpZXplcll1ZGtvd3NreQ https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-artificial-superintelligence-e

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Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters54
VolumeM2.9k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
33%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-04-05

This is a market that is attempting to evaluate the probability of AI wiping out humanity by 2030 conditional on artificial superintelligence existing.

If artificial superintelligence does not exist by 2030, this market will resolve to N/A.

This...

Last updated: 2025-04-05
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 54
Volume: M2.9k

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<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-1kbzaXsfSLjFSe1zt668" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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