Background
Current forecasts from platforms like Metaculus predict a median date of November 18, 2025 for a bilateral ceasefire, beyond the timeframe of this market. Russian leadership maintains strict territorial demands, including complete Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, which Ukraine has shown no willingness to accept.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if:
Russia and Ukraine officially announce a bilateral ceasefire agreement
The announced ceasefire has an intended duration of at least 28 days
The announcement occurs before October 1st, 2025
The market will resolve NO if:
No ceasefire is announced before October 1st, 2025
A ceasefire is announced but with an intended duration of less than 28 days
Only one side declares a unilateral ceasefire
Considerations
Local or regional ceasefires that don't cover the entire conflict zone will not count
Informal or unofficial ceasefire arrangements will not count
The ceasefire does not need to actually last 28 days - only the intended duration at announcement matters
If a ceasefire is announced with an "indefinite" or "permanent" duration, this will count as meeting the 28-day requirement
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 17 |
| Volume | M529 |
Current forecasts from platforms like Metaculus predict a median date of November 18, 2025 for a bilateral ceasefire, beyond the timeframe of this market. Russian leadership maintains strict territorial demands, including complete Ukrainian...