MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
8%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Resolution source: Epoch AI's list of notable AI models. I will check this source on January 1st, 2026, to see whether there is a model that uses more than 1e28 FLOPS https://epoch.ai/data/notable-ai-models

AI models do not only include LLMs, but also other types of AI models that are mentioned in the resolution source

As of market creation, the biggest LLM model is Grok 3, with 4.6e26 FLOPs of training compute

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters8
VolumeM4.9k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?
8%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-06

Resolution source: Epoch AI's list of notable AI models. I will check this source on January 1st, 2026, to see whether there is a model that uses more than 1e28 FLOPS https://epoch.ai/data/notable-ai-models

AI models do not only include LLMs, but...

Last updated: 2025-05-06
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 8
Volume: M4.9k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-2PRCEERcyN" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview