Resolves YES if China invades Taiwan.

Resolves 50% if a human steps on the Moon.

Resolves NO if an offensive nuclear explosion happens.

Whichever event happens first after the market opening resolves this market. If nothing happens before the market closure, then the market is prolongated +2 years, repeatedly.

This market is an exercise in calculating more complicated expected values and encourages people not only to predict Whether something happens, but also whether the event comes sooner than others.