This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).
The party must be intended to run candidates in U.S. elections.
A public announcement reported by credible news sources (e.g. NYT, WSJ, Reuters, CNN, BBC, Bloomberg, AP) or official filings with the FEC will count.
Speculation, jokes, or offhand remarks do not count unless followed by a formal announcement or filing.
Update 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES based on the public announcement or FEC filing of a new political party intended to run candidates in U.S. elections, regardless of whether:
Any candidates ultimately get on the ballot.
The party succeeds in gaining ballot access.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 24 |
| Volume | M2.8k |
This market resolves YES if Elon Musk publicly announces the creation of a new political party before the end of Trump’s current term (January 20, 2029).
The party must be intended to run candidates in U.S. elections.
A public announcement reported...