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Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
20%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025? By any means, including legislative or administrative.

Update 2024-11-12 (PST): A policy to revoke passports would count as a YES resolution even if it cannot be enforced due to technical/data limitations. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Scale requirement: Revocations must occur at a significant scale, such as state-wide policies or equivalent measures.

Means of revocation: Actions may include legislative, administrative, or other substantial directives that impact a large number of passport holders.

Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Additions:

Number of Reports: Approximately ten confirmed separate instances.

Geographical Concentration: All instances must be concentrated within a single administrative region (e.g., state or city).

Evidence Sources: Acceptable sources include Substack, reputable press outlets, or detailed YouTube reports by professional reporters. Social media alone is insufficient.

Update 2025-23-01 (PST): - Number of Reports: Approximately 50 confirmed separate instances. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-25-01 (PST): - Revocations during processing are excluded from the resolution criteria. (AI summary of creator comment)

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters99
VolumeM49k

Capture #

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Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?
20%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-25

Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025? By any means, including legislative or administrative.

Update 2024-11-12 (PST): A policy to revoke passports would count as a YES resolution even if...

Last updated: 2025-05-25
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 99
Volume: M49k

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