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Will we get AGI before 2035?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
77%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2035

Here are markets with the same criteria:

@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd (this question)

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048

Related markets:

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034

@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035

Other questions for 2035:

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3fcd58236f90

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-89a5bfdee8ca

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-2a28875c1c26

@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-0a7d585d5f97

@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-1c5b2e348e1d

@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p-a35e6823fbba

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-35fc264bbc88

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-46410d8053fa@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa

@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5

@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ece7abf70bde

@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-8ae988ef1cac

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-lunar-163b9107ef15

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-cc226795c047

@/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-285b5811deab

Other points of reference for AGI:

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover

@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters101
VolumeM23k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will we get AGI before 2035?
77%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-06-14

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is...

Last updated: 2025-06-14
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 101
Volume: M23k

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