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Will there be a reasoning model more powerful than o1-preview, and cheaper and >10x faster than o1-mini, by Nov 12 2025?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
84%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

By Nov 12 2025, will there be a model that meets all of these criteria:

84.6% on the Artificial Analysis Quality Index

ie the average of benchmark scores on

MMLU

GPQA

MATH

HumanEval

MGSM

with no regressions on any individual benchmark

<$3/M input tokens, <$12/M output tokens, >720 tokens/sec

Note:

does not need to be an OpenAI model

open weights or free models will count as cheaper

quantized/distilled versions count, as long as they also beat the same accuracy thresholds

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters13
VolumeM1.0k

Capture #

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Will there be a reasoning model more powerful than o1-preview, and cheaper and >10x faster than o1-mini, by Nov 12 2025?
84%
Likely
Last updated: 2025-04-08

By Nov 12 2025, will there be a model that meets all of these criteria:

84.6% on the Artificial Analysis Quality Index

ie the average of benchmark scores on

MMLU

GPQA

MATH

HumanEval

MGSM

with no regressions on any individual...

Last updated: 2025-04-08
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 13
Volume: M1.0k

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<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-5O0Oz9c8h0" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

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