See this ACX post for general context: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lavenders-game-silexan-for-anxiety?s=r

"Independent" will be defined as in this related question: https://manifold.markets/AlvarodeMenard/will-an-independent-rct-study-evalu

Essentially, this question is supposed to be exactly like that question, except

• My threshold is 0.3 instead of 0.5, mirroring Scott's prediction in the post.
• This question is conditional on a qualifying study being run - if no such study is run by the close date, the question will resolve N/A.

If multiple independent studies are run, I will resolve this question in whatever way Scott resolves his prediction (if he declares himself right, I will resolve YES, otherwise NO).

Close date updated to 2025-05-25 11:59 pm