MetaforecastStatus
SearchToolsAbout

‌

‌
‌
‌
‌
‌
‌

Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?

Manifold Markets
★★☆☆☆
38%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

By "new" I mean any virus that is not a close mutation of any other viruses that currently in 2023 predictably infect humans

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★☆☆☆
PlatformManifold Markets
Forecasters28
VolumeM2.0k

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?
38%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2025-05-20

By "new" I mean any virus that is not a close mutation of any other viruses that currently in 2023 predictably infect humans

Last updated: 2025-05-20
★★☆☆☆
Manifold Markets
Forecasters: 28
Volume: M2.0k

Embed #

<iframe src="https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/manifold-5tjRw9VUBygIqrfBOq0C" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />

Preview