For purposes of this market, "Bashar al-Assad" is only Bashar al-Assad (born 11 September 1965), who is the president of Syria (at the time of market creation on 8 December 2024).
This market will resolve NO after at least 24 hours following the Associated Press publishing news of his death. If there is high uncertainty surrounding such news, then market resolution will be delayed.
This market will resolve YES if Assad is still alive on 2 January 2026.
If Assad goes missing during 2025 and remains missing into 2026, then this market will delay resolving.
I will not bet in this market.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 65 |
| Volume | M21k |
For purposes of this market, "Bashar al-Assad" is only Bashar al-Assad (born 11 September 1965), who is the president of Syria (at the time of market creation on 8 December 2024).
This market will resolve NO after at least 24 hours following the...