Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pete Hegseth becomes the first member of President Donald Trump's second-term cabinet to be dismissed, fail, or resign. The market will resolve to "No" if any other cabinet member is dismissed, fails, or resigns before Hegseth, or if Hegseth remains in his position without such an event occurring.

Background:

Pete Hegseth, a former Fox News host and Army National Guard veteran, was confirmed as Secretary of Defense on January 24, 2025, following a 51-50 Senate vote, with Vice President J.D. Vance casting the tie-breaking vote. (npr.org)

Since his confirmation, Hegseth has faced scrutiny over allegations of sharing sensitive military information via the Signal messaging app. Reports indicate that he shared details about U.S. military operations in Yemen with unauthorized individuals, including family members. These actions have led to calls for his resignation from several Democratic lawmakers and have prompted an investigation by the Department of Defense's acting inspector general. (time.com)

Despite these controversies, President Trump has publicly expressed support for Hegseth, denying reports that he plans to replace him. (axios.com)

Considerations:

Given the ongoing investigations and political pressure, traders should monitor developments closely, as they may influence the likelihood of Hegseth's potential dismissal or resignation.

Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Based on a creator comment, a cabinet member leaving their post will be considered a trigger event ('dismissed, fail, or resign') for market resolution purposes, regardless of the reason for their departure. This includes scenarios such as being moved to a different position within the administration, even if that position is considered more prestigious.