We aren't currently maintaining Metaforecast. We hope to do so again in the future.
Based on Gwern's claim during the Dwarkesh Patel podcast that he discovered the true meaning of Evangelion but hasn't written it up. Market resolves YES if Gwern publicly discloses his interpretation through his blog (gwern.net), interviews, or other verifiable public statements before the end of 2025.
References:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gwern-branwen-how-an-anonymous-researcher-predicted/id1516093381?i=1000676859036&l=ko
https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/gwern-branwen
See also: @/Sinclair/what-is-in-gwerns-complete-theory-o
@/Bayesian/will-gwern-talk-mostly-positively-o
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★☆☆☆ |
| Platform | Manifold Markets |
| Forecasters | 19 |
| Volume | M3.4k |
Based on Gwern's claim during the Dwarkesh Patel podcast that he discovered the true meaning of Evangelion but hasn't written it up. Market resolves YES if Gwern publicly discloses his interpretation through his blog (gwern.net), interviews, or other...